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Now That The Election Is Over...

We now know who the president will be for the next four years and what the makeup of Congress will be. What are the implications for independent retailers?

“With the holiday season upon us, retailers are glad that this unprecedented election is over, along with the divisive rhetoric and the impact it had on consumers concerned about their future,” National Retail Federation (NRF) President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a recent article.

Consumers worried about the election had dialed back their retail spending in the weeks prior to the election. Now that it's over and the uncertainty is past, industry watchers like the NRF expect retail sales to blossom, especially with the Christmas holiday approaching. Other than the prospect of increased sales in the wake of the election, what will its outcome mean for retailers? It would appear to be a bit of a mixed bag.

Taxes: Tax reform and pro-growth policies will be on the front-burner if President Trump follows through on his promises. Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from the current 35 percent to 15 percent, which would be a real boon to small business. It is a cornerstone of his commitment to job creation because the tax savings could go toward expansion.

Trade: Trump is opposed to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free-trade agreement that would eliminate virtually all of the $6 billion in annual tariffs on goods from member countries. He also wants to impose tariffs on imports from China and renegotiate the long standing North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This could increase the prices of products sourced from those countries or necessitate sourcing from local producers. This is another plank in the president-elect's job-creation platform which would level the playing field for US manufacturers.

Immigration: Details are scarce about how the Trump administration will change how immigration law is enforced to fulfill his promise to secure the nation's borders. NFR is concerned that the burden may be on employers to verify the immigration status of their workers.

Labor: If Clinton had won the election, she would likely have pushed for increases in the minimum wage across the country. Under Trump this may not be as likely. Since labor costs represent the greatest expense for any business, common sense would seem to indicate the wage for least skilled workers shouldn't be raised willy-nilly for political reasons. Doing so would force all wages up and cause fewer people to be employed, which would be antithetical to Trump's commitment to job creation.

Health Insurance: One of Trumps signature issues has been "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act. As of now, no one knows what that will look like; there are a number of plans that have been put forward by Republican lawmakers, who kept their majorities in both houses of Congress. Those business who come under the "Obamacare" mandates may hope to receive some relief.

"Every day we deal with doctors who are trying to navigate the regulatory waters of the current healthcare system, which is almost impossible because it’s such a moving target," Mills Chang, a registered Republican who voted for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, says in a Fortune article. “I believe [Donald Trump] plans to simplify things."

At this point, there are a lot of unknowns. Hopefully, a business man in the White House will mean good things for business, which ultimately is good for everyone, since everyone either owns a business, works for a business and/or is the customer of businesses and they depend on those businesses' success for the very food on their tables.

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